【BTC】ETF組成で為替影響が起こる可能性も

bitFlyer ビットコインを始めるなら安心・安全な取引所で
1: 仮想通貨の名無しさん

http://jp.mobile.reuters.com/article/idJPKBN18S3SL

[東京 1日 ロイター] – ビットコインBTC=BTSPの乱高下が続く中、ドルや円などの通貨に影響が及ぶのかという点にも、関心が集まり出している。みずほ証券・チーフ為替ストラテジスト、山本雅文氏は、現時点で相関性は薄いとみているが、ビットコインの上場投資信託(ETF)が組成され、機関投資家にとって投資対象としての魅力が高まれば、相関が生じる可能性があると分析している。

ロイターの電話インタビューで語った。

主なやり取りは以下の通り。

――人民元とビットコインの動きに相関性はあるか。

「ドル/人民元とビットコインは、相関があったといえる。トランプ相場でドル高・人民元安の思惑が高まった。しかし、中国でドルの買い入れは1年間5万ドルまでと制限されている。このため規制の影響を受けないビットコインに需要がシフトしたことが、相場急騰の一因だろう。ビットコインがドルの代替とみなされる中で、人民元安が対ドル、対ビットコインで進んだ」

――逆にビットコインの変動が、人民元に影響を与えることはあるか。

「将来的にその可能性は、ゼロではない。例えば、ビットコイン価格が上昇するなか、人民元をビットコインに換えようとして、人民元を売る動きが強まることもあるかもしれない。ただ、現時点では、人民元とビットコインの相関の起点は、あくまで人民元安だ。今のところ、ビットコインは為替相場の重要な変動要因にはなっていない」

――ほかの金融商品との相関はどうか。

「総じて相関は認められない。通貨やコモディティ、金利や株価とビットコインとの相関係数を算出してみると、2016年以降に欧州通貨との順相関の高まりがみられる。ただ、相関性は弱い上、13年以降とやや長期でみるとほとんど相関性は失われる」

「ほかの金融商品にしても、一時的に連動する場面があったとしても、極めて限られた期間でしかない」

――先行きも為替に影響することはないか。例えば、ドル/円に投資している個人投資家がビットコインで損失を被った場合、益出しでドル/円を売却するかもしれない。

「可能性はゼロではないが、一定の相関関係ができるところにまでは至らないのではないか。例えばドル/円のショートポジションを組んでいる投資家が、ビットコインのロングで損失が出たとすれば、ドル/円のショートを解消することで、相場押し上げ方向に作用するかもしれない。その逆もありえる」

「ビットコインがドルや円などの通貨に影響を及ぼすには、両者間で自由に資金が移動できるような環境が整う必要がある」

──具体的にはどういうことが考えられるか。

「ビットコインがETFなどに組み込まれて、機関投資家の投資できる『金融商品』として認識されるようになることが重要だ。大規模なマネーフローが生じ、他の資産との相関性が高まりやすくなる」

「かつて金や原油などのコモディティがETF化されたとき、世界の機関投資家の資金がオルタナティブ投資の一環として振り向けられた経緯があった。コモディティの『金融化』は、コモディティとほかの金融資産との相関性を高めた一因とみられている。ビットコインはまだ、こうした段階にない」

──ビットコインのETFは3月、米証券取引委員会(SEC)が申請を却下したが、ETF化の可能性は残っているのか。

「ビットコインと類似したブロックチェーン技術に基づく『イーサリアム』に連動するETFが、米証券取引委員会(SEC)で審査されているようだ。イーサリアムは、ビットコインに次いで取引量が多いとされる」

「ビットコインと類似した仮想通貨は、『アルトコイン』と呼ばれる。ライトコイン、モネロ、Zキャッシュなど、新たにどんどん生まれている。いずれ『金融化』されるものが出れば、為替相場がこれらの相場動向に振り回される時が来るかもしれない」

「ただ、こうした各金融商品との相関性の出方は、どういった投資家がどの資産クラスをどの程度、ビットコインと入れ替えるか次第といえ、現時点で予見するのは難しい」

(平田紀之 編集:伊賀大記)

2017年 6月 1日 1:16 PM JST

2: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
株屋は嘘吐き

 

3: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
まあ、中国人がビットコインの9割を持った時点で、
他の国ではビットコインを交換停止にすればいい

 

12: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
>>3
アホか

 

4: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
最近はビットコインって乱高下してたか?
さいきんは27万ぐらいで押し合いしてたが
このエコノミストは本当にだいじょうぶな人かな?

 

5: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
共産党体制のままBTと元の二大通貨になったら中国の一般人苦しむだろうなぁ
元の価値守る為にビットコインでの取引強制停止とか出来ちゃうんだから

 

6: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
先週末から暴落しててけど、今度はETFで養分集めるのか

 

7: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
経済兵器のような気がするんだけど。

 

8: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
アメリカの住宅ローンみたいにジャンク債になるのが見える

 

9: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
まあ投機中の投機、博打そのもの。 「金融商品なんてレベルじゃねえぞ。」 だわな。

 

10: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
換金すら出来ないリスクがあるんだし、
ギャンブルよりたちがわるいんだが

 

11: 仮想通貨の名無しさん
また賄賂攻勢で無理な背信でも誘発させんのか?

 

引用元:ETF組成で為替影響も

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